Don't you hate it when you start second-guessing things? I know I do. It's like the healthy monitoring we're supposed to do turns into hypervigilance and we don't know what to believe.

I tend to ramp up after coming out of a depression. Not sure why, I just do. And I think it's even more dangerous for me than a manic episode just starting on its own from a normal mood because I'm so happy to be out of the depression and feeling better that the last thing I want to do is medicate it away!

As far as trying to tell where you're headed: do you chart your moods? If not, now might be a good time to begin, even simple things like the number of hours you sleep at night, increased irritability (had a rough encounter with a cashier? record it.); keep an eye on your typical manic behaviors: are you spending more, do you crave sex, starting new projects, whatever your manias typically look like. Sometimes when you simply record the individual observations, then you can step back and look at them all together and get a better idea of the big picture. It's also good for your pdoc to see it written out to help him judge it as well.