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“Chance is commonly viewed as a self-correcting process in which a deviation in one direction induces a deviation in the opposite direction to restore the equilibrium. In fact, deviations are not "corrected" as a chance process unfolds, they are merely diluted.” ~ Amos Tversky, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
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A heuristic is a mental shortcut that allows people to solve problems and make judgments quickly and efficiently. These rule-of-thumb strategies shorten decision-making time and allow people to function without constantly stopping to think about their next course of action. While heuristics are helpful in many situations, they can also lead to biases. http://psychology.about.com/od/hindex/g/heuristic.htm\
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How heuristics are used:
Availability Heuristic
Representativeness Heuristic
Heuristic - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Is the use of heuristics problematical at times:
When Heuristics Go Bad (Ed Batista)
8 Biases That Cripple Smart Decision-Making
how make the use of a heuristic more reliable. - Bing Videos
The use of heuristic is expanding. Studies continue to tweak the methods of use. What has sometimes been termed "intuition" now is known as a respected tool for dealing with uncertainty.
What do you think?