Hello BBB2: You certainly seem to have a solid perspective with regard to the pluses & minuses here. I'd like to commend you for the thoughtful way in which you are approaching this decision. And it is a tough one, given what you've written.
I'm a retired vocational rehabilitation counselor. So what you're asking about is something I know a bit about. You seem to have a really good handle on what the short-term options & obstacles are. So what I'd like to focus on is more the long-term.
You wrote you want a career, not just a job where you can hide from the world. I think this is great! One of the things employers look for is steady growth with few, if any gaps in employment. And when there are gaps, they want to be able to see that the gap(s) is / are understandable & that you've kept active while seeking new employment.
So from my perspective, one thing you should look at is: how will the decision you make now, regarding your job at the supermarket, look to future employers? If you simply quit your supermarket job, & your job at the nursery doesn't expand, it may begin to look like you were "withdrawing" not growing. A future employer may wonder why you would quit the job at the supermarket when you didn't have something better lined up to go to. You may try to explain this away. But that may just end up sounding like an excuse. And, in retrospect, you may begin to wonder yourself, if better opportunities don't present themselves.
Having written that, the first thing I would recommend is to try to line up some new opportunities before you quit the supermarket. Can you talk with your employers at the nursery about your desires? Is it possible to arrange for more hours, & perhaps expanded duties, at the nursery before you quit the supermarket? Or in the alternative, can you make arrangements to get a new or 2nd job with another nursery? Are there educational opportunities you could take advantage of if you weren't working at the supermarket?
Hopefully, you get the idea here. Whatever you decide to do at present, with regard to the supermarket job, you want to be able to look back & see a progression of increased hours & / or responsibilities over time. Avoid the urge to quit the supermarket job simply because it's isolating & because the holidays are coming up. Develop a vocational plan for yourself that gradually leads you in the direction of the career you want. Then, when you "have your ducks in a row", so to speak, go ahead & resign from your job at the supermarket. Your reasoning, with regard to this job is sound. But, before you make the leap, it's important to have something solid to leap toward. Does that make sense?
With regard to anxiety & hiding away at the supermarket, I'll just say that this is certainly important to take into account. You don't want to direct yourself toward a career that requires you to be "in the public eye", as they say, if interacting with other people regularly & in a professional environment makes you overly anxiety-ridden. That would be just setting yourself up for failure. If you have a therapist, this might be good to talk with that person about. There are programs that teach interpersonal skills too. It may be that if you learn effective interpersonal skills techniques, this may help to alleviate your anxiety.
Good luck!