You're overthinking it. You are right; they are not in sync. So what? Over the course of a week or month or whatever, it works out. Besides, you would have to be eating roday for what you do tomorrow and/or the next day. How long it takes for food to become energy varies by food also, so it would get really complex to make energy available from what you ate sync up perfectly with energy expenditure. Every night we make a little fat and every day we burn a little fat.

Now back to what I need to think more about - getting my numbers right. I woke up feeling dehydrated rather than bloated and sure enough, I did not see a spike up; it was down to 159.0, the lowest I have seen by 1.4 pounds.

So it is pretty clear to me that I have been in a deficit. So I will log more of my exercise. I am planning to go paddling this afternoon, which could make that difficult. I am going to turn my HRM back on and see if that helps. The problem with that is I expect to have a high reading when I pump up my board (I have an inflatable, AKA iSUP). It takes high pressure to be hard enough to stand on without bending more than a tiny amount. Getting the last few pounds of pressure in is hard work.

EDIT - I found this resource to help me determine calorie burn but the range is huge:
https://www.islesurfandsup.com/sup-f...arding-burn-2/