@Tucon - I think the consistency of exercise is the biggest factor.

I am having trouble with my watch and its app with my new phone, which runs a later version of Android than my old phone. It worked for a while, but I have not been able to sync in several days. So I am just trying to make sure I get into the high thousands pretty much every day I can and over 10000 often. So I track my food pretty close (though I do estimate sometimes) and then I use voodoo to figure out the exercise calories. Somehow that is working.