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Old Apr 07, 2020, 05:00 PM
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bpcyclist bpcyclist is offline
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Member Since: Sep 2019
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bluebicycle View Post
I do not think it will be 18 months, based on what I've been reading. I think it'll be sooner than that, but that's just my opinion.

Also, just repeating what I've heard: the outbreak in China was suspected to have occurred back in October/November (*not* December), with the Chinese government allegedly trying to cover it up before admitting to it. However, it is now early April and China is seeing a great recovery. See here: China Coronavirus: 81,740 Cases and 3,331 Deaths - Worldometer

So... if we assume October was the date it started... then it's been 6 months since the coronavirus outbreak in China, and now China is mostly done with it. Approx 1200 people left (of the 80,000 people) and they've started taking down makeshift hospitals, as they do not need them anymore. I know that China had less cases than us, but just looking at the trends... I would say that 18 months sounds kind of like a gross overestimation. I think that's a fear mongering tactic spread about by the media. I would say that 6-8 months *from onset* (January) is far more realistic. So... sometime by July/August sounds more realistic.
Yes, well, I get that. But, the real kicker will be what happens in China now, since they are opening things back up and people are gathering in giant groups together. Seen the pictures? Crazy. Of course, that also assumes that they don't obfuscate and lie, as they did previously, about the real situation...
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