Italy was seeing a decline in cases shortly after they mandated a lockdown, but then the cases were increasing when they got rid of the lockdown. So I see your concern.

But even if China *did* have the number of cases rise after opening up again, I still do not think it will be 18 months. I think that is fear mongering at its finest.

Right now, the U.S. is locking down, and there are many professionals in academia who have made predictive models. For example, COVID-19

I'm sure we will see a small resurgence if we open up too soon, but I think the U.S. is handling it much better than Italy or Iran are/were.

The predictive models have been pretty on point so far, as I've been checking them everyday or every few days. As the virus changes, the predictive models' algorithms change, but the changes have been very subtle.

China may be lying about their total numbers -- who knows -- but they are taking down makeshift hospitals and now shipping millions of masks, thousands of ventilators, etc. to the U.S.. I do not think they would be giving up so many supplies if they felt there was a high risk of a large resurgence of cases.