I think you've made a very insightful and intelligent assessment. I recently came to a very similar conclusion and I agree completely with what Beth said about balance.

We are holistic beings and our wiring is physical, emotional, mental and spiritual. Pushing the energy load of any of these four bodies out of balance can be a trigger. Last time for me it was pushing myself mentally combined with strong emotion. My first episode it was a combination of spiritual, emotional and mental imbalance.

I'm working with a new holistic model to keep an eye on myself daily. It is easy to use and I think it will clearly show shifts as they occur. I'll find some way to share it if it proves effective.