I am not saying this applies to everyone or even that you have to believe me.
My mother and brother work in ICU in NJ near me. There has been talk of a second wave coming, or being here already and I wanted to share info I found out about this morning. I talked to them both this morning and they both shared with me what they see going on and the opinions of doctors that they work with.
NJ's cases are rising as well as the transmission rate but what seems to be the real issue as it was last time is the lethality and hospitalization rate. At the end of July the two hospitals they work at had zero covid patients. This is after overflowing hospitals during the peak. In the last three days both their hospitals had 12 admissions including 4 intubations and 2 on ventilators. The nurses and doctors talk to each other and the doctors are scared. They are scared it will be worse this time around. At a hospital north of me by 1 hour they had 30 patients admitted to ICU in the last 3 days. There were 28 intubations. Granted these hospitals are closer to NYC but still, NJ is not that big of a state.These hospitals are also not huge. The doctors have been getting briefs by other officials and they are starting to prepare for admissions. They will be in a better place because they have been stockpiling equipment and PPE but they expect this time around to end up being worse.
According to them its because people are so soured at what the first lockdowns did to the economy combined with cases and hospitalizations falling over the summer and assholes who refuse to comply, and people that violate guidelines and have "covid" fatigue. Whereas before it was new and there were a lot of unknowns; now people think its so mild and look at health policies as violations of their rights. There are no consequences enforced. The politicalization of covid and poor examples set by officials cause people to think its all under control.
Let me tell you that there are no sound treatments for covid no matter what you hear. No long term studies. They are still studying antivirals, and the like but its largely a matter of hypothesis and best guesses when it comes to treating the very sick. They know a little more now than last time but covid still seems nearly invincible.
They have better plans now but you can only plan so much, you cant plan for overwhelmed hospitals. If there isn't enough room, there isn't enough room.
They both want me to get a 3m respirator and face shield because I am the one who goes to the store and takes people places. My mom has N95 masks that she wants my husband and kids to wear. I do not F-ing care if I look stupid. I would rather be wrong and safe than sick. I know cases are up across the country but its the hospitals to pay attention to, to see how the healthcare system is holding up. And it has been proven in some places that its not just the 65 and over crowd that are most at risk. NJ's cases percentage wise have struck the 30-40 year old age range more than older adults. There are schools shutting down because of outbreaks in the "supposed" immune kids".
And The flu is coming. There already was an anti-vaxx sentiment about the flu vaccine but covid has made it 10 times worse due to misinformation. A favorite stat that was thrown around was how the flu was worse and more deadly than covid. Well, use that stat and add in covid and think about what will happen.
I don't know if anyone will think I have "insider" info but it is more than just speculation. I am not being an alarmist and this may not apply to your area or your state. I live in the biggest tri-state area in the country and if NYC or Con. or PA has spikes and deaths than you expect NJ to follow suit.
The biggest reason the doctors they work with say cases are getting like this is the cool weather and inside gatherings with no one wearing masks or distancing. Just because you are related doesn't mean you should not wear a mask. If people are not immediate members of your household it is recommended to wear a mask indoors and stay socially distanced. My brother has already decided he will have to miss the holidays with us if things continue this way. He doesn't want to risk it. He had been working 90 hours a week April-June and was having 1 patient die a day from covid. Young healthy people. There is too much to learn about this virus and how it mutates and why certain groups get sicker than others. When you get information please fact check it with an independent source. Double check you are reading the science and not opinions. You can disagree with me or tell me to F off but I assure you this is not something I read, this is not my guess, this is from people I know that work in critical care. I just wanted to share my perspective.