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MD, in an actual nuclear war, meaning at least two countries lobbing nukes at each other WAY more than 300 people would die. I just looked up number of deaths following the bombings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki - between 150,000 and 246,000
There is a site near me that is almost guaranteed to be targeted in a nuclear war. I plan to get as close to that location as I can before the bombs drop. I would just as soon go out in the first wave.
As for how likely it is to happen... speaking as someone who grew up in the peak of the Cold War with regular drills in school what to do if bombs were coming, worrying about it happening leads to madness.
I haven't seen the news today. Did something happen leading to your fear?
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