Doesn't have anthing to do with "chance" and odds. Has to do with the person and what you know of him. How does he act around his mother, sister, and other grown women (always a good test; I watched like a hawk how my husband treated his ex-wife, his mother and my mother)? Is he patient and kind? Does he normally tell the truth (why would he lie about this if all his other relationships are honest?)? Look at his life and how he behaves. If he's secretive and you can't see some of his life then I'd be suspicious he was trying to hide something from me but if he seems to enjoy you and lets you live your life like the intelligent, autonomous person you are :-) and lives his intelligently, then I'd say the chances are pretty good he really means it.