[Timgt5]

Gaming in this generation and what to expect in the next

2005 was a pivotal transition year for console game. It was year that saw the winding down of the generation six gaming systems Xbox, PS2 and Gamecube. In 2005 Xbox 360 debuted in November and both Sony and Nintendo had also presented their generation seven systems (they went on sale a year later) PS3 and Nintendo Wii to the gaming public.

"Nextbox"

In 2005 circumstances were moving in the right direction for Microsoft, it was finally gaining traction against Sony thanks to the wild success of Halo and its extensive investment in Xbox live. Although Microsoft was still a distant second in the console wars, it was confident that it could overtake Sony by being first out of the gate with a 7th Gen product. So in 2005 Xbox 360 was released to a lot of hype. The 360 became the go to system especially for playing one line for hard core gamers and so it grabbed an early lead. Several major developers put a lot of money and time into developing big budget titles which would make even the best PS2 exclusive games pale in comparison. To further bolster its position Sony’s PS3 was behind a year and launched with a very high price. At that point 360 had a number of solid franchises under its belt and product was slow to come to PS3 due to developers struggling with the daunting Cell processor.

Things in the world of gaming move a breathtaking speed. The Nintendo Wii emerging in November of 2006 became a surprise runaway hit, taking away a lot of potential casual gamers. To further complicate matters developers finally had gotten a handle on the PS3 “Cell” architecture and began to take advantage of its unique capabilities. The price of PS3 came down and Sony launched a number of highly acclaimed exclusives. HDDVD lost the next gen movie format war to Blu Ray (Blu Ray capability was a major early marketing point for PS3) Third party developers even found games developed using the PS3 as a lead platform were of superior quality than the other way around. Sony and Nintendo also began gathering momentum online as well.

In a blatant attempt to win back casual gamers both Sony and Microsoft developed motion based peripherals, Sony’s “Move” was a more sophisticated competitor to Nintendo’s Wii Mote. Meanwhile Mircosofts “Kinnect” eschewed the controller altogether, relying on a video camera that translated the gamers gestures and movements into action. Despite these efforts however it is likely that Xbox 360 will end up going down as a 3rd place finisher. Sony overtook Microsoft in total units sold just a couple of months ago and will remain on the market for at least another 2 years. If Microsoft follows past patterns Xbox 360 will likely disappear soon after the launch of Xbox 720

No real solid details have been released on 720 yet although it will likely go on sale toward the end of the year. This will put it behind Nintendo’s eight gen Wii U. machine, which went on sale in November of 2012. The Wii U has so far had less than enthusiastic reception and a likely more powerful machine will allow Microsoft to regain a lot of lost momentum, if Nintendo cannot find a “killer ap” for the Wii U.

PS3 to "Orbis"

2006 Saw the launch of both the PS3 and the Nintendo Wii. By 2005 Sony had ruled the roost in the gaming world. PS2 had gone on to break all records for console sales and owned a healthy 70% market share. Despite having the weakest hardware, well-made exclusives like Gran Turismo and God of War kept Sony out in front of the pack; it seems upon the launch of PS3, Sony could do no wrong.

Sony’s painful lesson this generation is that simply having the biggest and most powerful box on the block does not guarantee a victory. The PS3 whose 60 gig top end model sold for almost six hundred dollars came packed with features. Thanks to its built in Blu Ray player Sony could give their customers an all in one next gen game and movie experience. Sony marketed the PS3 as a value proposition, basically “Ferrari” performance for “Toyota” money, but most of the public did not get the idea and frankly Sony did a very poor job of explaining it to nontraditional gamers. The PS3 launched with a weak sauce line up, and because developers struggled with Cell processer ports of earlier Xbox 360 titles were riddled with visual and mechanical hiccups. So dismal was PS3s initial sales, analysts were ready to forecast Sony exiting the console world.

Things began to slowly turn around. The price of PS3 fell, and long promised blockbuster exclusives began to finally emerge. Developers having now learned the Cell architecture could begin to take advantage of the tremendous computational power the machine possessed. In 2009 Uncharted 3 Among Thieves became a new benchmark in game development and a show case for all of the capabilities of the machine. Sony bolstered its position further with the development of the “Move” motion controller and an enhanced two tier online service.

The Playstation 3 will remain in Sony’s line up for at least a couple more years, but expect this to be the last year any really big “wow factor” titles will likely show up as developers shift their resources to its successor. PS3 then finishes a decent second behind Nintendo’s Wii in boxes sold.

Lots and lots of speculation surround PS4. A few things have been confirmed. Sony will abandon its “Cell” Processor. The Cell chip, with 16 simulated cores, was engineered specifically for media, but was difficult to program and expensive to build. It took the best developers nearly 3 years to really get a handle on the horsepower and take advantage of what it could really do. Sony is going with a more conventional PC based AMD set up, complimented by a Radeon GPU. Rumor has it that it will incorporate the next Gen hi-def video format as part of its capabilities (those were those obscenely expensive TVs they were showing off at CES this year). If there has been one thing Sony has been really good at it is future-proofing its system. Armed with a lot of highly talented captive and in-house game development teams, Sony could be poised for a much better launch for PS4 (rumored to also come out a lower starting price this time) The PS4 is also planned for late this year with a demonstration at one of the spring game conferences.

Wii and Wii U trying to win back a few lost friends

In 2005 things were actually looking quite grim for Nintendo. The Gamecube had less than 10 percent of the market and it was surviving largely on the profits of its DS. Gamecube’s weird disc formatting alienated big third party developers, who were not happy at all with having to re-write code to fit on the little Gamecube discs when everyone else was on DVD. Sometimes out of desperation, marketing genius is born. Nintendo had neither the deep pockets of Microsoft, nor the massive R&D resources of Sony. So rather than try to compete directly with either, Nintendo instead made a “Hail Mary” play and did and end run of sorts around its competition. Rather than drop jaws with its visuals, Nintendo remade the gaming experience by building a controller based on motion and gesture rather than button pushing. All the sudden soccer moms found a way to play games with their kids. Nintendo then launched a brilliant marketing campaign, Wii was to be the system for ‘the rest of us” (meaning non gamers) Wii Sports came packaged with every Wii and found its way into living rooms and rest homes across the country. Wii then became the “Tickle me Elmo” of gaming, quickly getting out in front of its competitors in terms of sales volumes. To its credit Nintendo expanded gaming greatly with its tiny machine and many people who had never before held a joy pad were convinced they had become actual gamers.

In its rush to become the darling of children and soccer moms, Nintendo forgot about, uh gamers, the ones that actually buy titles. An informal survey of Wii owners I have done reveals that most own less than 5 titles, many keeping only the Wii Sports that came in the box and not buying anything else. By comparison I have since 2006 have amassed 55 PS3 Games. This is important because licensing software is where the real money is made in the business. Take the Call of Duty Franchise in which each addition ships in the millions. Each game platform maker gets paid for every copy sold. Nintendo unfortunately still maintained its arrogance when it comes to the big third party developers and has since paid the price in lost revenue. The other negative effect is that Wii’s volume attracted a lot of lower tier developers and on Wii there is a lot of “Shovel ware” (meaning poorly developed titles there to make a quick buck) the hardcore faithful Nintendo fans gave up after being disappointed with the game selection. This group is responsible for a lot of GameStop’s second hand Wiis.

Knowing that lightning does not strike twice in the same place very often (unless you are on top of the Empire State building) and that soccer moms have moved on and are not really interested in upgrading. Most are now into cell phone aps (“Angry Birds” anyone), “Farmville” and “Mafia Wars” on facebook. Nintendo launched Wii-U in November of 2012. Far more powerful and much more conventionally designed than its predecessor, Wii U is a sort of “catch up” device. Sporting a proper hard drive and hi def capability, Wii U is much more in line with PS3 and Xbox 360. The game pad resembles a separate hand held system and is designed to allow the player to continue playing using the screen on the pad when the TV is being used by someone else. It is a nice party trick, but in my opinion not a killer ap. The whole thing is a bit bulky and unwieldy to handle smoothly. Wii U is backwards compatible with all Wii titles out of the box in case those soccer moms want to reminisce every now and then. Wii is still available but do not count on it staying on the shelves beyond this year.

Wii U is more of an apology to the hardcore gamers and an attempt to make peace with the third party developers that Nintendo realizes it really needs more than anything else.


So do I have predictions for Generation Eight of the console wars?

A couple I will make:

The finishing order I think for gen 8, will resemble Gen 6, but a bit better for Nintendo this time around. I think the big N ends up with a 25% Market share, with the other 75% being split between Microsoft and Sony.

I am also convinced that Generation Eight will be the last generation of game consoles to be marketed. I think after that, gaming will go into a different direction. I predict the consoles will replaced by tablets, running games off the Cloud in a pay for play business model. So collectors, store your stuff carefully.

It is indeed starting to look a bit like 2005 all over again.

[Travelinglady]

Interesting history and predictions, Tim!