[Mountaindewed]

There is like a 3. Something % chance an asteroid will hit us in 2032. Its getting my brother really worked up and I'm just thinking "what happens happens." But 2032 is 7 years away anyways theres no sense in him freaking out now. I really don't want to hear him nonstop for that long.

Has anyone else heard about this?

[NovaBlaze]

Yes, I’m guessing, @Mountaindewed, that you’re referring to asteroid 2024 YR4?

In summary, please tell your brother not to lose any sleep over this at all. In the coming weeks we’ll almost certainly find that the impact chance drops to zero. The media love to get excited over this stuff, although most of them seem to be reporting it fairly accurately on this occasion.

As of the 21st February the odds of it hitting Earth have dropped below 1%. It also has a 1% chance of hitting the Moon. As scientists gather more data, over the coming weeks, that figure will become gradually more accurate, and I would put my money on the chance becoming zero. At the moment, the best way of looking at it is that there is a 99% chance that it won’t hit Earth, which puts it more into perspective.

The estimates on the size of this asteroid seem to vary, but it’s looking less than 150 metres diameter, and more likely been 50-90 metres. This means that even if it did impact, it would be in the atmosphere rather than something that left an impact crater - still enough to shatter glass windows in a localised area (30 miles around it’s impact area). If I recall correctly, it’s not big enough to be categorised as a Potentially Hazardous Object (PHO).

Bits of debris pass close to the Earth all of the time, and of course a lot of it hits, and as well as regular known meteor showers, we have the occasional bright fireball light up the sky when that debris happens to be pebble sized or even larger.

Spaceweather.com has a rolling list of some of the closest current potentially hazardous asteroids that will pass close to us (but will not hit us) over the coming months. The “miss” distance is given in multiples of lunar distances (1 lunar distance being approx. 250,000 miles).

[mote.of.soul]

And even if a larger asteroid a mile in diameter (normal for space) was on a collision course with Earth, from what I understand, launching and exploding nuclear warheads on it's surface (their only solution at this point I believe) will in all likelihood alter it's trajectory, it's flightpath slightly, enough to deflect it away from our planet. Also, an asteroid of that size, if it did collide with the Earth, would have a higher chance of landing in the ocean - 2/3 of the worlds surface - where, it has been shown, the sea would actually absorb the impact and probably not even make a tsunami. All good in the hood, my bro 👍

[NovaBlaze]

Originally Posted by “mote.of.soul”

…from what I understand, launching and exploding nuclear warheads on it's surface (their only solution at this point I believe) will in all likelihood alter it's trajectory…

It’s quite interesting, how technology and planning are advancing with regard to Earth’s protection. NASA’s relatively recent DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission showed that an asteroid could be deflected (given enough advanced warning) by impacting it with another object (a spacecraft in this case), or multiple objects, without requiring a nuclear explosion.

Double Asteroid Redirection Test - Wikipedia

[mote.of.soul]

Originally Posted by NovaBlaze

It’s quite interesting, how technology and planning are advancing with regard to Earth’s protection. NASA’s relatively recent DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission showed that an asteroid could be deflected (given enough advanced warning) by impacting it with another object (a spacecraft in this case), or multiple objects, without requiring a nuclear explosion.

Double Asteroid Redirection Test - Wikipedia

Ah, yes, I remember seeing that a little while ago NovaBlaze. Yeah, it was impressive and everyone heaved a sigh of relief. No nuke required - excellent.

You'd remember the meteor that exploded over the city Chelyabinsk, Russia, in 2013? That was incredible, blew out many windows causing injury but nothing too serious and at first people thought, oh no, it's nuclear attack! - not knowing what the heck was going on. And that metoer was something like 10 feet in diameter? But the damage and explosion...terrifying. I won't post a link I'm pretty sure sure you'd know of it. A lot of dashcam and CCTV footage of it on YouTube.

[NovaBlaze]

Originally Posted by “mote.of.soul”

…Chelyabinsk, Russia, in 2013?

Thank you, @mote.of.soul, I was trying to remember the name and the year of that event, but I couldn’t recall it.

It must be a very scary thing to have experienced - and something that you wouldn’t forget in a hurry.

Jeff.

[mote.of.soul]

Originally Posted by NovaBlaze

Thank you, @mote.of.soul, I was trying to remember the name and the year of that event, but I couldn’t recall it.

It must be a very scary thing to have experienced - and something that you wouldn’t forget in a hurry.

Jeff.

Yeah, would've been for sure. Etched into the memory, traumatised...

And the thing didn't just make one loud explosion, it was multiple as it was breaking up in the atmosphere. It would've been very confusing for people, yes.

Cheers Jeff, thank you.

[MuddyBoots]

Fake news from the "Giant Meteor for President" T-shirt and bumper sticker makers, obviously, the chances of it being an election year are lower than non-election years, so of course they made that shyt up.

(not being serious if that's not obvious, but yeah, less than 1% chance of an asteroid on a collision course for 7 years? I'm gonna worry about the bigger chance of dying in a car crash or being trampled by the man-eating moose on Mt. Lafayette before that, and I aint even preoccupied with that (okay, I'm a little preoccupied with the latter when I hear noises in the woods).)

[lizardlady]

Nova Blaze and Mote of Soul, thanks for the information. Very interesting.

[Gasplessy]

I used to be obsessed by asteroids and tsunamis when younger. I guess it is a clichè
I regret wasting thoughts on such irrational fears, so "cringe"

As far as i understood, a 100 mt long asteroid is still small enough... and won't destroy Earth

We are still unable to use bombs to drift one, but we can manage to evacuate people in time from the impact area
Maybe pandemic was not useless in this. It gave us a realistic perspective on global emergency

Problems could come with bigger asteroids or comets

[Mountaindewed]

The chances of it hitting us have gone way down and my brother has stopped talking about it thankfully.

[mote.of.soul]

Originally Posted by Gasplessy

I used to be obsessed by asteroids and tsunamis when younger. I guess it is a clichè
I regret wasting thoughts on such irrational fears, so "cringe"

As far as i understood, a 100 mt long asteroid is still small enough... and won't destroy Earth

We are still unable to use bombs to drift one, but we can manage to evacuate people in time from the impact area
Maybe pandemic was not useless in this. It gave us a realistic perspective on global emergency

Problems could come with bigger asteroids or comets

Yes, that's for sure Gasplessy. There's some whoppers floating around out there, and yes, some are of the 'earth crosser' variety,. And I think others are basically classified as small planets (oh gawd!). But, yes, best to focus on more Earthly concerns, I think, too. And you read the comments section of posts about Armageddon type asteroid events on other platforms; half the comments are like "Yay, and not a moment too soon" with 1500 likes! Or "Finally!😍" Teehee

I think the aliens will probably intervene and prevent such a catastrophe at the end of day, but let's not go there.🙏

[mote.of.soul]

For the asteroid lover: This is one of my favourite documentaries about American geologist/scientist Eugene Shoemaker and his incredible journey, in spite of opposition, to proving his idea that massive objects do in fact impact the Earth. It changed everything. It's a really good doco about his life, as well.