[pachyderm]

(Medicare part B basically pays for office visits, as opposed to hospitalization.)

I got this statement forwarded to me by a relative in an e-mail:

The per person Medicare Part B insurance premium will increase from the present monthly fee of $96.40, rising to: $104.20 in 2012; $120.20 in 2013; And $247.00 in 2014. These are provisions incorporated in the Obamacare legislation, purposely delayed so as not to 'confuse' the 2012 re-election campaigns. Send this to all seniors that you know, so they will know who's throwing them under the bus.

REMEMBER THIS IN NOVEMBER 2012 & VOTE ACCORDINGLY.

The very first part made me suspicious, since I know, and verified it on two Medicare (government! ) Web sites, that the fee for 2012 will be $99.90 (for most people). So the first figure they give is already known to be wrong. What about the other figures?

factcheck.org

http://www.factcheck.org/2011/04/pre...e-on-medicare/

includes this statement, written before the charge for 2012 was known (I made the text bold):

As for the future, nobody can say with precision what the basic Part B premium will be next year or the year after, let alone in 2014. The premium is set each year at a level calculated to pay for 25 percent of the cost of the coverage. Medicare officials do keep close watch on the trends, however.

They do give an estimate for 2014, but say it is only an estimate, of $117.10.

So, who is attempting to deceive whom?

This illustrates something I find interesting. The willingness you have to accept claims of this kind, without questioning them, depends on your personal outlook, your personal beliefs about life in general, more than it does upon facts. My relative is inclined to accept things like this without question.

What if an alien would come from Mars or the Soviet Union or somewhere, and had no idea whether this e-mail claim or Medicare or factcheck.org were more reliable? How would they come to a conclusion as to who was trying to fool whom? Who knows if a government! Web site can be trusted, or if factcheck.org is some kind of subversive organization? I think the only way is to look at more than one source of information, at several sources of information, and try to come to your own estimate of what the truth is likely to be.

[Ygrec23]

Pach said: "So, who is attempting to deceive whom? This illustrates something I find interesting. The willingness you have to accept claims of this kind, without questioning them, depends on your personal outlook, your personal beliefs about life in general, more than it does upon facts. My relative is inclined to accept things like this without question."

People have a tendency to believe almost any new allegation that confirms prior beliefs, regardless of whether or not that new allegation is true. The anti-Obama forces of today appear to be particularly subject to this standard kind of psychological error. It's actually very interesting. At the same time, it means that trying to correct the error is probably rather hopeless.

Confirmation bias
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

and see: List of cognitive biases
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

[unaluna]

Originally Posted by pachyderm

My relative is inclined to accept things like this without question.

Pachy! my relative too! hey, maybe you and I are related! Makes a good argument for nurture, not nature, doesn't it?! I don't know where she gets it!

[ECHOES]

Premiums and deductibles amounts have been decided for 2012. They are set before open enrollment begins.
The Part B deductible is actually going down, to $140. $22 less than 2011.

You can trust the Medicare.gov site:
http://www.medicare.gov/cost/

http://www.medicare.gov/publications/pubs/pdf/10050.pdf

[pachyderm]

Originally Posted by ECHOES

You can trust the Medicare.gov site:
http://www.medicare.gov/cost/

For some people, anything government is suspect. And indeed, in some countries that would be more reasonable than, I think, in ours, for which the government is more likely to be US. We do elect it, after all.

[ECHOES]

I just meant for the information about the decisions they make regarding Medicare. I wasn't referring to government as a whole.